Historical Election Year Stock Market Performance

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Historical election year stock market performance. Hoover 1936 33 9 roosevelt vs. Smith 1932 8 2 roosevelt vs. Historical stock market returns provide a great way for you to see how much volatility and what return rates you can expect over time when investing in the stock market.

In the table at the bottom of this article you ll find historical stock market returns for the period of 1986 through 2019 listed on a calendar year basis. A stock market crash cleaved the value of the s p 500 nearly in half between january 1973 and october 1974 accompanied by double digit inflation and a 16 month recession that began in the fall of. In the 23 four year presidential election cycles beginning in 1928 through this year the market failed to produce a gain only five times in the third year of the cycle 1931 1939 1947 2011 and 2015 which on average outperformed the other three years by a wide margin.

Since 1952 the dow jones industrial average has climbed 10 1 on average during election years when a sitting president has run for reelection according to the stock trader s almanac which is. Landon 1940 9 8 roosevelt vs. S p 500 annual stock market returns during election years year return candidates 1928 43 6 hoover vs.

Stock market performance during an election year it should be of no surprise that the markets performed better during a year when an incumbent president is elected compared to a new administration. But external events may sometimes be correlated to stock returns for instance the 4 year election cycle in the us. Also once the election is over investors can focus on other things like earnings economic growth or interest rates so whatever sentiment driven market action that occurs in the election year.

However the historical average annual return for the s p 500 index since 1957 the year in which the index adopted 500 stocks is 7 96. I have studied the election cycle and its potential impact on the stock market for many years looking back to the 1850s. Stock market performance thus far in 2019 has coincided with the presidential election cycle pattern.