Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Chart

Equity returns by year of the presidential term chart by author year 3 returns are spectacular.

Stock market presidential election cycle chart. In the lower right panel i show the forward return for the stock market based on various election outcomes measured from the close of the october preceding the election to 2 years later and 4 years later. And when an election year sees a down stock market as in 2000 or 2008 it is bad for the party in power. The charts begin and end on november 1st.

First there is the election cycle chart that shows the average trend over the entire four years of the cycle. The s p 500 climbed 27 in 1989. Comments and opinions offered in this website are for information only.

Equity clock provides free stock research and analysis on individual equities in the market to aid your stock investing picks. This article revisits the 2004 article presidential elections and stock market cycles written by marshall nickles that article found that all of the major stock market declines occurred during the first or second years of the four year u s. Bush s first year in office.

The economy and stock market surged in president george h. Some research has suggested that the last two years of the four year presidential cycle are normally positive for the market. Is your time up.

But then the savings and loan crisis and gulf war struck. This week s chart shows our presidential cycle pattern which is an average of the sp500 s behavior over the 4 years of each presidential term. There are five charts for every market.

The presidential election cycle theory developed by stock trader s almanac founder yale hirsch posits that equity market returns follow a predictable pattern each time a new u s. These charts show how the several key market indexes performed during each president s four year term of office going back to 1900. You can see the presidential cycle in the lower left panel on the chart below.