Us Election Year And Stock Market

The four year presidential market cycle is well known on wall street.

Us election year and stock market. The election of 1928 occurred before the infamous stock market crash of 1929. Since 1952 the dow jones industrial average has climbed 10 1 on average during election years when a sitting president has run for reelection according to the stock trader s almanac which is. Hoover 1936 33 9 roosevelt vs.

S p 500 annual stock market returns during election years year return candidates 1928 43 6 hoover vs. But there are some clear exceptions. The first 2 years of a presidential term have been associated with below average returns while the last 2 years have been well above average.

Willkie 1944 19 7 roosevelt vs. As of market close on august 17 th 2020 the s p 500 was up 4 68 year to date total return and bloomberg barclays us aggregate bond index was positive 6 94 on the year. Since 1929 the united states has had 14 recessions.

This ushered in the great depression. The analysts saw that on average both stock equity and bond markets showed more muted performance in the year leading up to a presidential election than they did at other times. Smith 1932 8 2 roosevelt vs.

Of these 14 recessions only five have occurred during a general election year. Also once the election is over investors can focus on other things like earnings economic growth or interest rates so whatever sentiment driven market action that occurs in the election year. So always focus first on the economy and corporate earnings.

Landon 1940 9 8 roosevelt vs. Returns the year after. During a presidential term markets do best in the third and fourth years election year and the year preceding it.