Stock Market During Presidential Election Year

The average annualized return for a president s term is over 10.

Stock market during presidential election year. President trump is now seeking a second term and the s p has gained an average of 6 6. Since 1930 the dow jones industrial average. Landon 1940 9 8 roosevelt vs.

The first 2 years of a presidential term have been associated with below average returns while the last 2 years have been well above average. From 1952 through june 2020 annualized real stock market returns under democrats have been 10 6 compared with 4 8 for republicans. Since 1952 the dow jones industrial average has climbed 10 1 on average during election years when a sitting president has run for reelection according to the stock trader s almanac which is.

So always focus first on the economy and corporate earnings. S p 500 annual stock market returns during election years year return candidates 1928 43 6 hoover vs. Although the stock market is not the economy historically both have played major roles in the outcome of presidential elections.

According to dan clifton of strategas research partners history. It is a normal trend for the stock market to rise during an election year. In the 23 four year presidential election cycles beginning in 1928 through this year the market failed to produce a gain only five times in the third year of the cycle 1931 1939 1947 2011 and 2015 which on average outperformed the other three years by a wide margin.

Stock market returns during presidential terms s p 500 index since 1929 only four presidential terms have experienced negative returns for the s p 500 on an annualized basis. Willkie 1944 19 7 roosevelt vs. The s p 500 has made gains in 78 of election years since world war ii.

But there are some clear exceptions. History suggests that us stock market returns are correlated with the presidential election cycle. Us elections impact stock markets chart how the stock market reacted to another stock market worry the year 2020 u s presidential election impact how presidential.