Presidential Election Year Stock Market History

It was furthered by pepperdine professor marshall nickles in a paper called presidential elections and stock market cycles which presented data showing that a profitable strategy would be to invest on oct.

Presidential election year stock market history. But there are some clear exceptions. Beginning in 1833 the dow jones industrial average has seen an average gain of 10 4 the year before a presidential election and an average gain of nearly 6 during the election year. The markets tend to go up whether there is a democrat or a republican in the white house.

The period leading up to the. 31 of year four. This presidential election cycle theory was originally put forth by yale hirsch creator of the stock trader s almanac.

Stock market has posted a gain 84 of the time in election year decembers since 1944 versus 74 for all decembers. When adjusted for inflation the dow jones industrial average has gained an average of 3 8 annually under. The performance of the s p 500 in the three months before votes are.

Certainly those averages came with plenty of ups and downs over the last 200 years. Cfra suggests that an end to election uncertainty has been a factor as. The first 2 years of a presidential term have been associated with below average returns while the last 2 years have been well above average.

History suggests that us stock market returns are correlated with the presidential election cycle. His research also shows how stock market performance leading up to an election has also been a major indicator of the outcome. Former actor and california governor reagan won the presidential election in a landslide.

Since 1952 the dow jones industrial average has climbed 10 1 on average during election years when a sitting president has run for reelection according to the stock trader s almanac which is. A look back at history shows that presidential election cycles indeed correlate with stock market returns although not in the same clockwork way that say the moon pulls on tides. 1 of the second year of a presidential term and sell on dec.