Presidential Election Cycle Years

It suggests that the us presidential elections exert a predictable effect on the economy.

Presidential election cycle years. Presidential elections occur quadrennially with registered voters casting their ballots on election day which since 1845 has been the first tuesday after november 1. The presidential cycle is a theory that suggests that the united states stock market experiences a decline in the first year a new president takes office. An election for president of the united states happens every four years on the first tuesday after the first monday in november.

Understanding the presidential election cycle theory stock market researcher yale hirsch published the first edition of the stock trader s almanac in 1967 the guidebook became a popular tool for. 2012 is an election year. The theory was first developed by yale hirsch a stock market historian.

The constitution states that members of the united states house of representatives must be at least 25 years old a citizen of the united states for at least seven years and be a legal inhabitant of. Since 1947 through 2011 years 1 2 and 4 of the presidential cycle returned cumulatively about a 300 gain. Pre election year the course of important us markets is.

Years 3 returned 2100 gain. The short answer is that election years are up on average although not as strongly as the 3rd year of a presidential term. We have and the cycle years are.

The next presidential election will be november 3 2020. Key takeaways history suggests that us stock market returns are correlated with the presidential election cycle. Congressional and presidential elections take place simultaneously every four years and the intervening congressional elections which take place every two years are called midterm elections.

And when an election year sees a down stock market as in 2000 or 2008 it is bad for the party in power. And there are no more significant numbers than the ones generated on the tuesday after the first monday in november every four years. So thanks to the folks at ucsb and their fine website dedicated to the united states presidency we present the election results for the last 100 years dating to the first time all 48 contiguous states took part.