Election Years Market Performance

1 the market tends to perform well during an election while this may come as somewhat of a surprise the stock market actually tends to perform quite well during an election year with the market having been positive overall in 19 of the past 23 election years.

Election years market performance. Market performance in election years the good news for investors is that historically the market has performed well in election years with the s p 500 ending up in positive territory 82 of the time. In the years leading up to an election sitting presidents tend to roll out new policies or push for lower taxes in an effort to bolster the u s. Looking at the performance of the s p 500 index for each general election year since 1928 the market has only had a negative return three times 13.

Economy some analysts say. The presidential election cycle theory vs. According to the 2019 dimensional funds report the market has been positive overall in 19 of the last 23 election years from 1928 2016 only showing negative returns four times.

This is clearly not a normal election. Market performance in election years looking back at the performance of the s p 500 index since 1928 the schwab center for financial research found that the market ended on a positive note in 17 of the past 23 presidential election years or 74 of the time with an average annual return of 7 1. The average stock market performance in election years turns out to be positive 82 of the time.

As of the writing of this blog the stock market is up a couple percentage points so far this year. When you further examine the years between elections however it becomes apparent that year three of a president s term is usually the strongest year for the market followed by year four then the second and. Historical returns of stocks and bonds during election years blackrock as of market close on august 17 th 2020 the s p 500 was up 4 68 year to date total return and bloomberg barclays us.

No matter which party wins the white house. In fact a case could be made that general election years have correlated with positive market performance. Here are three key takeaways that can be drawn from the market s past performance during election years.