Election Years And Stock Market Returns

History suggests that us stock market returns are correlated with the presidential election cycle.

Election years and stock market returns. Smith 1932 8 2 roosevelt vs. Between 1950 and 2019 the stock market experienced gains in 73 of calendar years. Between 2000 and 2019 the average annualized return of the s p 500 index was about 8 87.

So always focus first on the economy and corporate earnings. Historical returns of stocks and bonds during election years blackrock as of market close on august 17 th 2020 the s p 500 was up 4 68 year to date total return and bloomberg barclays us. Hoover 1936 33 9 roosevelt vs.

The average total return on the s p 500 index for the nine years in which a republican held office was 6 05. From 1952 through june 2020 annualized real stock market returns under democrats have been 10 6 compared with 4 8 for republicans. S p 500 annual stock market returns during election years year return candidates 1928 43 6 hoover vs.

Historical data shows that the positive years far outweigh the negative years. Regardless of whether a republican or a democrat is president stock market returns tend to be below average for the first two years of their term and above average for the last two according to a. But during year three of the presidential election cycle the s p 500 saw an annual increase 88 of the time.

Market performance in election years the good news for investors is that historically the market has performed well in election years with the s p 500 ending up in positive territory 82 of the time. Landon 1940 9 8 roosevelt vs. Negative stock market returns occur on average about one out of every four years.

The first 2 years of a presidential term have been associated with below average returns while the last 2 years have been well above average. With the 2020 election less than four months away some. Stock and bond returns during an election year versus the year after according to dan clifton of strategas research partners in the year after the election historically the market s p 500 responds better to a republican victory initially november through february of the following year but a democratic victory ends up outperforming a republican victory by about 7.