Election Year Stock Market Trends

In the fourth year of the presidential term and the election year the stock market s performance tends to be above average.

Election year stock market trends. But 2008 an election year saw returns drop by 37 00. What can history tell us about stock market trends during a 4 year election cycle. In the 23 four year presidential election cycles beginning in 1928 through this year the market failed to produce a gain only five times in the third year of the cycle 1931 1939 1947 2011 and 2015 which on average outperformed the other three years by a wide margin.

What are the specific ways in which the 2020 presidential election note. If you had followed the theory and invested in the stock market from oct. The correlation between an election year and the stock market we will need a refresher course on macroeconomics and its role in politics over the last 80 years.

Stock market performance thus far in 2019 has coincided with the presidential election cycle pattern. Also once the election is over investors can focus on other things like earnings economic growth or interest rates so whatever sentiment driven market action that occurs in the election year. All information on this page is subject.

The 5 year and 10 year projections for the us stock markets still look promising. 31 2008 your investments would have been down. This ushered in the great depression.

The election of 1928 occurred before the infamous stock market crash of 1929. I have studied the election cycle and its potential impact on the stock market for many years looking back to the 1850s. As of market close on august 17 th 2020 the s p 500 was up 4 68 year to date total return and bloomberg barclays us.

Historical returns of stocks and bonds during election years. Recessions aren t always predictable. Housing market and stock market forecasts.