Election Year Stock Market Returns

Since 1929 the united states has had 14 recessions.

Election year stock market returns. In the 23 four year presidential election cycles beginning in 1928 through this year the market failed to produce a gain only five times in the third year of the cycle 1931 1939 1947 2011 and 2015 which on average outperformed the other three years by a wide margin. Historically inflows to money market funds which invest. This ushered in the great depression.

But external events may sometimes be correlated to stock returns for instance the 4 year election cycle in the us. Historical returns of stocks and bonds during election years blackrock as of market close on august 17 th 2020 the s p 500 was up 4 68 year to date total return and bloomberg barclays us. Cashing out of the stock market presidential races make wall street nervous so investors often cash out as election day approaches.

Election day is a year away and stocks are poised to keep rising over the next 12 months with an incumbent in office that is if history is any indication. The line at 45 weeks is. In the table at the bottom of this article you ll find historical stock market returns for the period of 1986 through 2019 listed on a calendar year basis.

Election year stock market returns here are the market results for the s p 500 for every election year since 1928. The election of 1928 occurred before the infamous stock market crash of 1929. Stock market performance thus far in 2019 has coincided with the presidential election cycle pattern.

S p 500 annual stock market returns during election years year return candidates 1928. Since 1952 the dow jones. Stock and bond returns during an election year versus the year after according to dan clifton of strategas research partners in the year after the election historically the market s p 500 responds better to a republican victory initially november through february of the following year but a democratic victory ends up outperforming a republican victory by about 7.

Of these 14 recessions only five have occurred during a general election year. I have studied the election cycle and its potential impact on the stock market for many years looking back to the 1850s.