Election Stock Market Cycle

In the 23 four year presidential election cycles beginning in 1928 through this year the market failed to produce a gain only five times in the third year of the cycle 1931 1939 1947 2011 and 2015 which on average outperformed the other three years by a wide margin.

Election stock market cycle. The pre election price declines appear to set up a bottom or double bottom price level 12 to 15 months prior to the election date. The first 2 years of a presidential term have been associated with below average returns while the last 2 years have been well above average. The market has risen in the last seven months of a presidential election year in 15 of the 17 elections since 1952.

The night of the 2016 election as more states began reporting and a trump victory became increasingly likely stock market futures sank rapidly. The theory suggests that markets perform best in the second. Pre election year the course of important us markets is.

August to october market performance may predict the presidential election. The four year cycle is determined by the us presidential election. The results do not seem to be very sensitive to the.

But there are some clear exceptions. We have and the cycle years are. Governmental fiscal policy is.

The point we want to try to make is that election cycle years tend to be much more volatile and aggressive. 2012 is an election year. The incumbent party has retained power in 11 of 13 postwar elections when the market has been up from july 30 through october 31.

Election cycle pattern stock market performance thus far in 2019 has coincided with the presidential election cycle pattern. Stock market seasonal trend is usually for a weak october followed by strong november and december which this year is being disrupted by the election. If the presidential election cycle in stock returns is driven by economic policy then a cycle should be detected in the government s tools of fiscal policy.